Sentiment may be in “extreme greed” territory, but math-based metrics continue to leave the door open for further Bitcoin price gains.
Bitcoin (BTC) has barely started its run to new all-time highs if its relative strength index (RSI) repeats historical behavior.
As noted by popular Twitter analyst TechDev on Oct. 18, the RSI has yet to produce macro top signals for BTC/USD.
RSI falls far short of classic macro top zone
Bitcoin has kept the market guessing as it tracks sideways just below all-time highs without hitting them this month.
With time, concerns have mounted that the blow-off top that many expect may not be as high as the bulls hope.
Looking at technical data, however, the real state of Bitcoin’s bull run becomes apparent — there’s a lot more left.
“Update on the two-week RSI channel which has called every Bitcoin top and bottom in history,” TechDev explained.
“Current RSI Value: 68. Projected Top Value: 93-94. Every time it’s broken the EQ it’s visited the top. Clear skies ahead. Don’t forget this when it comes time to reinvest at the bottom.”
History has proven RSI to be a key factor in tracking Bitcoin price strength on longer timeframes. A 90+ reading has coincided with tops, and until this level is broken, Bitcoin spot price action trends higher.
TechDev previously forecasted a potential top for this cycle lying between $200,000 and $300,000 — again based on mathematical phenomena, notably Fibonacci sequences, which have also characterized every bull run.
Extreme greed lurks in the background
Technical formulae such as these paint a decidedly different picture to price metrics based on different aspects of crypto markets.
Related: All-time high weekly close — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week
This week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned to its highest possible area, “extreme greed.”
At 78/100, the Index is noticeably closer to its own peak than the RSI — this, likewise, historically signaling macro tops.
As Cointelegraph reported, 95/100 and up has accompanied every top in Bitcoin’s history, leaving precious little room for growth unless that growth, itself, becomes more sustainable.